Research

[ Google Scholar Citations ]

WORKING PAPERS

We are not in a Gaussian world anymore: Implications for the composition of official foreign assets
(Preliminary draft)
(with Jose Andree Camarena, Juan Pablo Medina, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)

The income and labor effects of individual income tax changes in Latin America:  Evidence from a new measure of tax shocks in Latin America
(New version coming soon)
(with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Lucila Venturi)

Can automatic government spending be procyclical?
(with Luciana Galeano, Alejandro Izquierdo, Jorge Puig, and Carlos Vegh)
Invited to R&R to Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
NBER working paper 28521, March 2021.

Social transfer multipliers in developed and emerging countries: The role of hand-to-mouth consumers
(with Jessica Bracco, Luciana Galeano, Pedro Juarros, and Daniel Riera-Crichton)
Invited to R&R to World Bank Economic Review
WB working paper 9627, April 2021.

Is the public investment multiplier higher in developing countries? An empirical exploration
(with Alejandro Izquierdo, Ruy Lama, Juan Pablo Medina, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)
NBER working paper 26478, November 2019.

Policy implications of non-linear distortion-based effects of tax changes on output
(with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)
NBER working paper 28646, April 2021.
WB working paper 8720, January 2019.
[ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) ; Blog - Brookings: Africa ]

Democracy does not cause growth: The importance of endogeneity arguments
(with Julia Ruiz Pozuelo and Amy Slipowitz)
IDB working paper 694, July 2016.
[ VoxEU ] [ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) (Portuguese) (Chinese) (French) (Japanese) ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ]
Featured in: The Economist, June 14, 2018. The Australian (Australia), June 18, 2018. World Economic Forum, October 27, 2016.
El Mundo (Spain), October 31, 2016. Notitarde (Venezuela), October 31, 2016.

Monetary policy dilemma in emerging markets: The cycle within the cycle  
(New version coming soon)
(with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh)

Macroprudential policy over the business cycle
(with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh)
NBER working paper 20612, October 2014.
Bank of Japan IMES Discussion Paper Series 2014-E-X, July 2014.

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach
(with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh)
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 139 (November 2022).
World Bank working paper 10145, August 2022.
NBER working paper 27687, August 2020.
* Replication files
* Reserve requirement narratives

Fooled by the cycle: Permanent versus cyclical improvements in social indicators
(with José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Vegh, and Lucila Venturi)
Journal of International, Money, and Finance, Vol. 127 (October 2022)
World Bank working paper 10115, June 2022.
NBER working paper 26199, August 2019.

Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation
(with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 131 (July 2021)
NBER working paper 26570, December 2019.
WB working paper 8668, December 2018.
* Replication files
* VAT tax narratives
Tax multipliers maps:  World - Latin America - Africa - Europe - Middle East - Europe and Central Asia - South East Asia
[ VoxEU ] [ Blog - Brookings ]

The effect of capital flows composition on output volatility
(with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh)
Economica, Vol. 64 (December 2018), pp. 95-132.
World Bank Policy Research working paper 6386, March 2013.

Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities
(with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh)
Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Vol. 35 (April 2017), pp. 10-17.

Unsticking the flypaper effect using distortionary taxation
(with Carlos Vegh)
Economica, Vol. 62 (December 2016), pp. 186-237.
NBER working paper 22304, June 2016.

Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification
(with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh)
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 79 (May 2016), pp. 30-48.
NBER working paper 18497, October 2012.
Featured in: Expresso (Portugal), November 1, 2012.

Unsticking the flypaper effect in an uncertain world
(with Carlos Vegh)
Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 131 (November 2015), pp. 142-155.
NBER working paper 21436, July 2015.

How is tax policy conducted over the business cycle?
(with Carlos Vegh)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol 7 (August 2015), pp. 327-370 .
NBER working paper 17753, January 2012.
[ VoxEU ]
Featured in: The Economist, October 17, 2013. Voz Populi (Spain), October 5, 2013. Bullfax, September, 30, 2013.

Fiscal procyclicality and output forecast errors
(with Leopoldo Avellan)
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 55 (July 2015), pp. 193-204.
IDB Policy Brief 240, February 2015.
[ Blog - Brookings ]  [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ En español - Colectivo Economico ]
Featured in: Bullfax, March 26, 2015. Mint (India), April 14, 2015.

Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries
(with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh)
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 52 (April 2015), pp. 15-31.
NBER working paper 20533, September 2014.
Featured in: The Washington Post, October 7, 2014. Chicago Tribune, October 8, 2014. The New Zealand Herald (New Zealand),
October 8, 2014. Tampa Bay Times, October 7, 2014. Daily News EN, October 7, 2014.  Bullfax, October 8, 2014.
Wall Street Italia (Italy), October 20, 2014. Finance Business Daily (Slovenia), October 24, 2014. Mother Jones, October 7, 2014.
Reading Eagle, October 8, 2014.

The road to redemption: Policy response to crises in Latin America
(with Carlos Vegh)
IMF Economic Review, Vol. 62 (November 2014), pp. 526-568.
NBER working paper 20675, November 2014.
[ VoxEU ]  [ En español - VoxLACEA ]
Featured in: The Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2016. The Economist, December 5, 2013. Financial Times, December 6, 2013.
b92 (Serbia), December 10, 2013, RT (Russia), December 16, 2013. mdz (Argentina), December 16, 2013.
Adital (Brazil), December 17, 2013.

The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage
(with Roberto Delhy Nolivos)
European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34 (June 2014), pp. 440-458.

Exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline: The role of capital controls
Economic Inquiry, Vol. 51 (October 2013), pp. 2096-2109. 

On graduation from procyclicality
(with Jeffrey Frankel and Carlos Vegh)
Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 100 (January 2013), pp. 32-47.
NBER working paper 17619, November 2011.
Harvard Kennedy School working paper 2012-09, April 2012.
[ VoxEU ]
Featured in: Financial Times, March 3, 2016. Bullfax, June 22, 2011. The Fiscal Times, June 24, 2011.
Búsqueda (Uruguay), June 30, 2011. China Daily (China), October 17, 2013. The Economic Times (India),
December 4, 2013. Mint (India), April 14, 2015.

The effects of alternative exchange rate regimes on real exchange rate volatility. Evidence based on a new data set
(with Jorge Carrera)
Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 31 (January 2013), pp. 212–234. 

Replacing a "disobedient" central bank governor with a "docile" one. A novel measure of central bank independence and its effect on inflation
(with Ling Zhu)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43 (September 2011), pp. 1185-1215. 

The flypaper and teflon effects: Evidence from China
(with Lyoe Lee)
Modern Economy, Vol. 3 (November 2012), pp. 811-816. 

Measuring the informal economy in Latin America and the Caribbean
Money Affairs, Vol. 21 (July-December 2008), pp. 161-191.
Working Paper No 102, IMF, April 2008.
Featured in: El Siglo de Durango (Mexico), November 5, 2006. La Gazette des Caraibes (Guadeloupe), May 20, 2007. 

BOOKS, CHAPTERS IN BOOKS, AND POLICY REPORTS

The Promise of Integration: Opportunities in a Changing Global Economy
LAC Economic Review; April 2023. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1987-2

New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap
LAC Economic Review; October 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1929-2

Consolidating the Recovery: Seizing Green Growth Opportunities
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1867-7 

Recovering Growth: Rebuilding Dynamic Post‐COVID-19 Economies amid Fiscal Constraints
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-46481806-6

Renewing with Growth
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-46481711-3

The Cost of Staying Healthy
LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/34602

The Economy in the Time of Covid-19
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/33555

Trade Integration as a Pathway to Development?
LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1516-4

Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Dreams Meet Reality
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1413-6

From known unknowns to black swans: How to manage risk in Latin America and the Caribbean
LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 00.1596/978-1-4648-1373-3
[ VoxEU ]  [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ Blog - World Bank ]

Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less
(with Alejandro Izquierdo and Carola Pessino)
DIA (Development in the Americas) Flagship; September 2018. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001217-en
Featured in: The Economist, November 15, 2018. La Nación, MDZ (Argentina), Barbados Today (Barbados), El Economista,
La Tercera, Diario Financiero, Estrategia, El Ciudadano,  (Chile), El Universal, El Colombiano, La FM, Portafolio (Colombia),
El Periodico, La Nacion (Costa Rica), Diario de Cuba (Cuba), Hoy Digital (Dominican Republic), El Comercio, El Telegrafo,
La Hora (Ecuador), Diario El Mundo, Diario Co Latino, Ultima Hora, El Salvador (El Salvador), Aletelia (Italy),
Jamaica Observer (Jamaica), Alto Nivel, NSS Oaxaca, Huellas (Mexico), El Nuevo Diario (Nicaragua), Panama America,
TVN (Panama), ABC Color (Paraguay), El Comercio, Diario Gestion, RPP (Peru), Observador (Portugal), LatinPress (Spain),
La Red 21 (Uruguay), Televisa, Finanzas Digital, EFE, El Pais, from September 23 to October 4, 2018.

Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-run Pain, Long-run Gain?
LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1290-3

Fiscal policy responses during crises in Latin America and Europe: Implications for the G-20
(with Carlos Vegh)
In Kemal Derviş, Peter Drysdale (eds), The G-20 at Five, Chapter 7, pp. 144-158, Brookings Institution Press, 2014.
NBER working paper 19828, January 2014.
[ VoxEU ]

Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World
(with Tito Cordella, Pablo Federico, and Carlos Vegh)
World Bank Studies. 2014. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0212-6
[ Video presentation at CEMLA | Audio and pdf presentation at Brookings ]

Overcoming the fear of free falling: Monetary policy graduation in emerging markets
(with Carlos Vegh)
In Douglas Evanoff, Cornelia Holthausen, George Kaufman, and Manfred Kremer (eds), The Role of Central Banks in Financial
Stability:  How Has It Changed?, pp. 105-131, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and European Central Bank, 2013.
NBER Working Paper No 18175, June 2012.
[ VoxEU ]
Featured in: Citizen Economists (India), September 4, 2012. Mint (India), April 14, 2015.

The size of the informal economy in the Caribbean Countries
In Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues, pp. 44-66, International Monetary Fund, 2007.