WORKING PAPERS (with Luciana Galeano, Alejandro Izquierdo, Jorge Puig, and Carlos Vegh) The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach (with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh) NBER working paper 27687, August 2020. (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Ruy Lama, Juan Pablo Medina, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)
Fooled by the cycle: Permanent versus cyclical improvements in social indicators (with José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Vegh, and Lucila Venturi)
Policy implications of non-linear distortion-based effects of tax changes on output (with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh) [ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) ; Blog Brookings - Africa ]
Democracy does not cause growth: The importance of endogeneity arguments (with Julia Ruiz Pozuelo and Amy Slipowitz) [ VoxEU ] [ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) (Portuguese) (Chinese) (French) (Japanese)] [ En español - VoxLACEA ]
Monetary policy dilemma in emerging markets: The cycle within the cycle (New version coming soon) (with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh) Macroprudential policy over the business cycle (with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh).
JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation (with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh) Forthcoming at Journal of International Economics [VoxEU] [ Blog - Brookings ] Tax multipliers maps: World - Latin America - Africa - Europe - Middle East - Europe and Central Asia - South East Asia
The effect of capital flows composition on output volatility (with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh) Economica, Vol. 64 (December 2018), pp. 95-132.
Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Vol. 35 (April 2017), pp. 10-17. Unsticking the flypaper effect using distortionary taxation (with Carlos Vegh) Economica, Vol. 62 (December 2016), pp. 186-237.
Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 79 (May 2016), pp. 30-48.
Unsticking the flypaper effect in an uncertain world (with Carlos Vegh) Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 131 (November 2015), pp. 142-155.
How is tax policy conducted over the business cycle? (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol 7 (August 2015), pp. 327-370 .
Fiscal procyclicality and output forecast errors (with Leopoldo Avellan) [ Blog - Brookings ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ En español - Colectivo Economico ] Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 55 (July 2015), pp. 193-204.
Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 52 (April 2015), pp. 15-31.
The road to redemption: Policy response to crises in Latin America (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] IMF Economic Review, Vol. 62 (November 2014), pp. 526-568.
The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage (with Roberto Delhy Nolivos) European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34 (June 2014), pp. 440-458. Exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline: The role of capital controls Economic Inquiry, Vol. 51 (October 2013), pp. 2096-2109. On graduation from procyclicality (with Jeffrey Frankel and Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 100 (January 2013), pp. 32-47.
The effects of alternative exchange rate regimes on real exchange rate volatility. Evidence based on a new data set (with Jorge Carrera) Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 31 (January 2013), pp. 212–234. Replacing a "disobedient" central bank governor with a "docile" one. A novel measure of central bank independence and its effect on inflation (with Ling Zhu) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43 (September 2011), pp. 1185-1215. The flypaper and teflon effects: Evidence from China (with Lyoe Lee) Modern Economy, Vol. 3 (November 2012), pp. 811-816. Measuring the informal economy in Latin America and the Caribbean Money Affairs, Vol. 21 (July-December 2008), pp. 161-191.
BOOKS, CHAPTERS IN BOOKS, AND POLICY REPORTS LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/34602 LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/33555 LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1516-4 Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Dreams Meet Reality (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Jorge Puig, José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, and Lucila Venturi) LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1413-6 From known unknowns to black swans: How to manage risk in Latin America and the Caribbean (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Juan Pablo Medina, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, and Lucila Venturi) [ VoxEU ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ Blog - World Bank ] LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 00.1596/978-1-4648-1373-3 Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less (with Alejandro Izquierdo and Carola Pessino) DIA (Development in the Americas) Flagship; September 2018. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001217-en
Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-run Pain, Long-run Gain? (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, and Jose Andree Camarena) LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1290-3 Fiscal policy responses during crises in Latin America and Europe: Implications for the G-20 (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] In Kemal Derviş, Peter Drysdale (eds), The G-20 at Five, Chapter 7, pp. 144-158, Brookings Institution Press, 2014.
Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World (with Tito Cordella, Pablo Federico, and Carlos Vegh) [ Video presentation at CEMLA | Audio and pdf presentation at Brookings ] World Bank Studies. 2014. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0212-6 Overcoming the fear of free falling: Monetary policy graduation in emerging markets (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] In Douglas Evanoff, Cornelia Holthausen, George Kaufman, and Manfred Kremer (eds), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: How Has It Changed?, pp. 105-131, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and European Central Bank, 2013.
The size of the informal economy in the Caribbean Countries In Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues, pp. 44-66, International Monetary Fund, 2007. |