WORKING PAPERS The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach (with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh) Invited to R&R to Journal of International Economics NBER working paper 27687, August 2020. Fooled by the cycle: Permanent versus cyclical improvements in social indicators (with José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Vegh, and Lucila Venturi) Invited to R&R to Journal of International, Money, and Finance NBER working paper 26199, August 2019. Social transfer multipliers in developed and emerging countries: The role of hand-to-mouth consumers (with Jessica Bracco, Luciana Galeano, Pedro Juarros, and Daniel Riera-Crichton) WB working paper 9627, April 2021. (with Luciana Galeano, Alejandro Izquierdo, Jorge Puig, and Carlos Vegh) NBER working paper 28521, March 2021. (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Ruy Lama, Juan Pablo Medina, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh)
(with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh) [ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) ; Blog Brookings - Africa ]
Democracy does not cause growth: The importance of endogeneity arguments (with Julia Ruiz Pozuelo and Amy Slipowitz) [ VoxEU ] [ Blog - Brookings (English) (Spanish) (Portuguese) (Chinese) (French) (Japanese)] [ En español - VoxLACEA ]
Monetary policy dilemma in emerging markets: The cycle within the cycle (New version coming soon) (with Diego Rojas and Carlos Vegh) Macroprudential policy over the business cycle (with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh).
JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation (with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Carlos Vegh) Forthcoming at Journal of International Economics [VoxEU] [ Blog - Brookings ] Tax multipliers maps: World - Latin America - Africa - Europe - Middle East - Europe and Central Asia - South East Asia
The effect of capital flows composition on output volatility (with Pablo Federico and Carlos Vegh) Economica, Vol. 64 (December 2018), pp. 95-132.
Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Vol. 35 (April 2017), pp. 10-17. Unsticking the flypaper effect using distortionary taxation (with Carlos Vegh) Economica, Vol. 62 (December 2016), pp. 186-237.
Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 79 (May 2016), pp. 30-48.
Unsticking the flypaper effect in an uncertain world (with Carlos Vegh) Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 131 (November 2015), pp. 142-155.
How is tax policy conducted over the business cycle? (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol 7 (August 2015), pp. 327-370 .
Fiscal procyclicality and output forecast errors (with Leopoldo Avellan) [ Blog - Brookings ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ En español - Colectivo Economico ] Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 55 (July 2015), pp. 193-204.
Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos Vegh) Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 52 (April 2015), pp. 15-31.
The road to redemption: Policy response to crises in Latin America (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] IMF Economic Review, Vol. 62 (November 2014), pp. 526-568.
The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage (with Roberto Delhy Nolivos) European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34 (June 2014), pp. 440-458. Exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline: The role of capital controls Economic Inquiry, Vol. 51 (October 2013), pp. 2096-2109. On graduation from procyclicality (with Jeffrey Frankel and Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 100 (January 2013), pp. 32-47.
The effects of alternative exchange rate regimes on real exchange rate volatility. Evidence based on a new data set (with Jorge Carrera) Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 31 (January 2013), pp. 212–234. Replacing a "disobedient" central bank governor with a "docile" one. A novel measure of central bank independence and its effect on inflation (with Ling Zhu) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43 (September 2011), pp. 1185-1215. The flypaper and teflon effects: Evidence from China (with Lyoe Lee) Modern Economy, Vol. 3 (November 2012), pp. 811-816. Measuring the informal economy in Latin America and the Caribbean Money Affairs, Vol. 21 (July-December 2008), pp. 161-191.
BOOKS, CHAPTERS IN BOOKS, AND POLICY REPORTS LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/34602 LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/33555 LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1516-4 Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Dreams Meet Reality (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Jorge Puig, José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, and Lucila Venturi) LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2019. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1413-6 From known unknowns to black swans: How to manage risk in Latin America and the Caribbean (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Juan Pablo Medina, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, and Lucila Venturi) [ VoxEU ] [ En español - VoxLACEA ] [ Blog - World Bank ] LAC Semi-annual Report; October 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 00.1596/978-1-4648-1373-3 Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less (with Alejandro Izquierdo and Carola Pessino) DIA (Development in the Americas) Flagship; September 2018. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001217-en
Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-run Pain, Long-run Gain? (with Carlos Vegh, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, and Jose Andree Camarena) LAC Semi-annual Report; April 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1290-3 Fiscal policy responses during crises in Latin America and Europe: Implications for the G-20 (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] In Kemal Derviş, Peter Drysdale (eds), The G-20 at Five, Chapter 7, pp. 144-158, Brookings Institution Press, 2014.
Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World (with Tito Cordella, Pablo Federico, and Carlos Vegh) [ Video presentation at CEMLA | Audio and pdf presentation at Brookings ] World Bank Studies. 2014. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0212-6 Overcoming the fear of free falling: Monetary policy graduation in emerging markets (with Carlos Vegh) [ VoxEU ] In Douglas Evanoff, Cornelia Holthausen, George Kaufman, and Manfred Kremer (eds), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: How Has It Changed?, pp. 105-131, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and European Central Bank, 2013.
The size of the informal economy in the Caribbean Countries In Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues, pp. 44-66, International Monetary Fund, 2007. |